Chief Minister Alfred Cannan will ask Tynwald to back an interim target to cut carbon emissions ahead of the island’s goal to go net zero.

If approved, the regulations will set an interim target of 45% reduction of national greenhouse gas emissions, against a 2018 baseline, by 2035.

Mr Cannan says the interim target will set the island clearly on the path to achieving net zero by 2050 and provide a landmark to aim for on the way.

A climate change emergency was declared by then chief minister Howard Quayle in May 2019.

During 2020 global emissions temporarily dipped due to the pandemic but they have since rebounded close to record, pre-Covid levels.

The actions proposed to meet the 45% target by 2035 are set out in the Isle of Man Climate Change Plan 2022-2027 which is subject to Tynwald approval under a separate motion.

Mr Cannan will tell Tynwald that 45% represents a ‘challenging but achievable’ target and is viewed as the ‘highest possible ambition’ for the island.

He says the target reflects the Manx public’s ‘desire for high ambition’ in respect of climate change policy.

Professor James Curran, a climate scientist and former chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, was appointed as the independent chair to lead the island’s climate change action plan.

He has estimated that the total cost to public expenditure would be about £25m a year over 10 years.

The government’s action plan includes a commitment to generate 75% of the island’s electricity from renewable sources by 2035.

Other proposals include a ban on fossil fuel heating appliances in new build homes by 2025.

But a report to this month’s Tynwald on renewable heating standards, by consultants Gemserv, recommends that the government reserves the right to bring in as a backstop an outright ban on the use of fossil fuels in homes long-term.

It notes: ‘Total decarbonisation of heating is impossible without transitioning away from fossil fuel heating – otherwise, a number of gas boilers (if the gas network continues into the long term) and oil boilers may continue to be maintained and used up to, and beyond 2050.

‘For the majority of buildings, we believe that economic considerations will be sufficient in encouraging consumers away from gas heating in the medium term, although bans may be appropriate for some segments, such as new builds, private rented sectors and potentially social housing.

‘Encouraging consumers to transition from oil heating may be more difficult, and there is a greater risk that these systems remain operational past the target date for net-zero without policy interventions such as taxation or air quality requirements.

‘Such a transition could have significant consequences for consumers, particularly if it is implemented without sufficient notice, as these systems could be economically stranded before the end of their technical lifetime.’

It adds: ‘We recommend that the Isle of Man reserves the right to implement outright bans on the use of fossil fuels in the long term, with the need for such measures kept under review.’

Gemserv’s report rules out hydrogen heating as an alternative, saying it is an expensive decarbonisation solution.

Instead, it recommends a ‘leading the way’ scenario involving the installation of 1,000 biomass boilers, 10,500 heat pump systems and 17,500 hybrid biomass/heat pump systems.

It suggests there is a potential for district heating, with networks serving some 10,000 properties.

Green groups’ criticism of government policy, page 12.