The island’s population remains ’extremely vulnerable’ with the number of over-65s spiralling and few signs of much-needed growth in the working age demographic.

That’s the conclusion of Manx Population Atlas author Paul Craine who has run the rule over the statistics since the 2016 census.

It is three years since the 2016 census recorded that three decades of continuous population growth had come to an end. The island’s population had fallen by almost 1,200 between 2011 and 2016, dropping to a new total of 83,314.

Quarterly economic reports to the Council of Ministers suggest the population has been rising since then, but only slowly. It increased by 618 up to December last year, giving an average growth of 225 per year, or less than 0.3% per year.

But other statistics paint a very different picture. Doctors’ registers, taken from the same CoMin source, show the size of the under 65 population has not increased at all since the census.

At the end of 2018 there were 117 fewer residents aged under 65 - suggesting that attempts to increase the working-age population have had limited success.

’The decline in the under 65 population between 2011 and 2016 has been halted but the island remains vulnerable,’ said Mr Craine.

’The Isle of Man has one of the lowest levels of unemployment in Europe but this has not been sufficient to make the island as attractive to young workers as it was 10 years ago.’

Mr Craine said encouraging evidence in CoMin reports of growth in the number of people in employment in part simply reflects the rising state pension age for women bringing with it the need to work for longer. Meanwhile, since the 2016 census, the number of people aged 65 plus is estimated to have increased by a further 735 (an average of 267.3 per year).

The proportion of the population aged over 65 years rose from 20.6% in March 2016 to 21.4% in December 2018.

Government figures show that the over 65 age group crossed the 21% mark in September 2017, making the island’s population ’hyper-aged’ according to a UN definition.

Using this measure, the Isle of Man is one of the six oldest countries in the world alongside Japan, Italy, Portugal, Germany and Finland.

Mr Craine said the growth in the over-65s is not the results of migration gains in this age group.

Increasing longevity may contribute to the numbers, he said, but the biggest driver is the age-structure of our population.

’Because there are so many people aged in their 50s and early 60s they add to the over 65 groups as each year passes,’ he explained.

’The existing population structure means that this will continue to happen for many years to come.’

The number of births declined to under 800 by 2015, with deaths outnumbering births for the first time this century.

Since the 2016 census the number of births has continued to decline, falling from 785 in 2015 to 717 in 2018 (the lowest number of births since 1986 when the island’s population was just 66,000).

By the end of 2018, births were almost 30% lower than in 2010.

Mr Craine said the declining number of births appears to be the result of both changing fertility patterns and the net emigration of young adults.