Since Tim Glover boldly announced he would be tabling a vote of no confidence in the Chief Minister the silence has been deafening.

While the Arbory, Castletown and Malew MHK has publicly explained his position and motivation for the historic move, few others have spoken publicly or on social media.

Few politicians will see any advantage in nailing their colours to the mast too readily. One of the only MHK directly addressing the issue on social media has been Onchan MHK Rob Callister who revealed he was torn on the issue and asked constituents for any thoughts.

Behind the scenes, there will be much political manoeuvring and lobbying, promises made and deals struck.

Mr Glover tabled the motion during a week of political turmoil with Lawrie Hooper dramatically resigning as the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) Minister on the floor of Tynwald amid a bitter war of words over funding for Manx Care.

It has been a difficult period for Chief Minister Alfred Cannan which has left semi-retired political journalist Alistair Ramsay intrigued.

‘I think Mr Cannan is the first Chief Minister since the current system started in 1987 to face a direct vote of no confidence,’ he said. ‘That is nearly 40 years.

‘It is an interesting one. It puts the backbenchers in the spotlight. Many work within government but publicly tell constituents they are against the government.’

Mr Ramsay, who was head of communications at the government for the tenure of five chief ministers, says the backbenchers will be put in a difficult position, particularly if they have designs to progress their political careers.

‘It will be interesting to hear if there will be much of a debate on the motion,’ he said.

Unlike a statutory vote of no confidence which would need 13 MHKs to back it to succeed, a non-statutory vote only needs a simple majority on the day.

On the face of it, Mr Glover’s motion seems doomed.

If we assume the current ministers – seven in total – and perhaps John Wannenburgh as the MUA chairman, all vote against the motion, alongside David Ashford and Chris Thomas who have just been drafted in as political members in the health department, then Mr Glover is already facing an uphill struggle.

It would be fair to assume Mr Hooper and Joney Faragher – who stepped down in her role within the DHSC – will vote for the motion. They are likely to be joined by Onchan MHK Julie Edge.

A Tynwald insider also suggests they may be joined by Claire Christian, Michelle Haywood, Sarah Maltby and Juan Watterson.

The insider also told Media IoM he expected a majority of members to support Mr Cannan. But they said it would be a different story if the vote was a secret one and not public – as members of CoMin may be tempted to support Mr Glover’s motion.

Mr Ramsay also says the true position of some CoMin members is an interesting one.

‘One of the intriguing things is whether any ministers will vote against Mr Cannan,’ he said. ‘There is speculation about that.’

The problem with Mr Glover’s motion appears to be the absence of anyone MHKs can rally around as an alternative.

‘(Treasury Minister) Alex Allinson stood against Mr Cannan as Chief Minister three years ago,’ Mr Ramsay said. ‘There is political space between them as Dr Allinson is more left wing.

‘As speaker, Juan Watterson is the neutral presiding officer but we have seen in the past the speaker putting their hat in the ring which happened when Tony Brown became a surprise candidate and succeeded.

‘Would Mr Hooper himself come forward, I’m not sure. It is difficult to elect a chief minister without a plan but I imagine there will be a lot of talking behind the scenes.

‘A lot of people would like to see Jane Poole-Wilson as Chief Minister as a safe pair of hands and respected by everyone, but I am not sure she has the appetite for it.’

Mr Ramsay feels Mr Cannan has been the author of his own problems.

‘There has never been a chief minister like Alf Cannan,’ he said. ‘He has sacked and moved people more than anyone else.

‘But you cannot predict what will happen. He appeared to be very isolated when Mr Hooper resigned but then up pops Mr Thomas and Mr Ashford to come to his aid as members of the DHSC – one who he previously fired and another who he forced to move on.

‘Members have been getting fed up of the hire and fire approach and this motion would have more chance of succeeding if there was a clear alternative. I think members will just feel they do not have time for this during this period of crisis.

‘But I think Mr Glover is doing the right thing and bringing everything into focus.’

It does appear Mr Glover’s motion is doomed to fail and even he does not feel overly confident, ruling himself out of running for Chief Minister.

Speaking to Manx Radio earlier, Mr Glover says there are MHKs unhappy with the leadership but says it is also the people expressing discontent.

However, when asked who could replace Mr Cannan, he admitted there is a fault with the procedure in that we just don’t know who might express an interest and said ‘a wider look at the whole system needs to follow’.

But this is the system we have and politics has a way of throwing up surprises. While Mr Cannan’s position looks safe for now, we will only truly know after Tuesday’s House of Keys sitting.