Detailed data on weather warnings for the Isle of Man have been released, shedding light on the island’s exposure to adverse conditions since 2018.
In response to a recent Freedom of Information (FoI) request (4105561), the Department of Infrastructure (DoI) has outlined the number of red, amber and yellow weather warnings issued each year since 2018.
The weather warning system used to alert people to the potential for adverse conditions was updated in January 2018.
The island’s Met Office revised the colour-coded warnings reflecting the advances in technology that enable met officers to make more accurate forecasts, in particular the impact of severe weather events such as storms, flooding and snow.
Since then, a yellow warning is issued when the weather is likely to cause a low level impact, such as minor disruptions to travel methods.
A step up from that is an amber warning, with an increased likelihood of impacts from severe weather such as travel delays, road and rail closures, power cuts and the potential risk to life and property.
The most severe of these is the red weather warning, which alerts residents of dangerous weather which presents a threat to life.
Notably, the data released in the FoI request shows that no red weather warnings have been issued in the Isle of Man since 2018.
In early January that year, the island was hit by Storm Eleanor, and the Met Office issued a red alert, with trees down, damages to houses and vehicles, and the main Douglas to Peel road closed for several hours.
The strongest winds hit Ramsey and Castletown, where windspeeds reaching 74mph were recorded.
The data reveals several other interesting trends.
Yellow warnings have, as expected, been consistently the most common.
The highest number was recorded in 2020, with 88 warnings issued, compared to that of 64 in 2023.
This year (until the end of August) the island has seen 47 yellow alerts issued.
There has been a notable increase in amber warnings, which signify more serious conditions that could impact daily life.
From just five amber warnings in both 2018 and 2019, the number spiked in 2020 to 14 and has remained relatively high since, peaking at 16 in 2022.
We’ve seen 13 amber weather warnings issued so far in 2024.
Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the warnings:
This could reflect an increase in severe weather events or a more proactive approach in issuing amber alerts.
Yellow | Amber | Red | |
2018 | 80 | 5 | 1 |
2019 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
2020 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
2021 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
2022 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
2023 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
2024 | 47 | 13 | 0 |
With regards to what classifies as a yellow, amber or a red warning, there are many factors to consider.
Previously, George Shimmin, a forecaster from the Met Office at Ronaldsway, told Isle of Man Today that it comes down to the level of confidence the Met Office has in the computer model data as well as the potential impact it would have on the island.
He added: ‘If there is a good consensus among the computer models, then we are more confident in issuing a warning, knowing what colour the warning will be.
‘Equally, if there is a large spread in the computer model data, we would likely issue a yellow warning, monitor the situation to see how it develops, and update the warning as necessary.
‘In summary, confidence in the model data, the potential impact of the weather event, guideline threshold values and local knowledge all come into play when issuing any weather warning.’